Last week I was correct with my predictions when it came to Taken 2 winning the box office and Frankenwennie being dead on arrival. The money predictions have still been giving me trouble, but we all have slumps we have to work ourselves out of. Unfortunately for me this will be one of the hardest weekends to predict at the box office all year with three big new releases hitting theaters this weekend.
Argo is receiving early awards buzz telling the story of a secret CIA mission to rescue six Americans who managed to escape the American embassy before the Iranian Hostage Crisis. Ben Affleck directs and stars in the film along with John Goodman, Bryan Cranston and Alan Arkin. Affleck has risen above the hate the past few years directing the superb Gone, Baby Gone and The Town. Early reviews have been strong, but unfortunately real life events don’t always equal big numbers at the box office. Argo will receive the most praise out of the new releases, but will probably earn around $14 million.
Here Comes the Boom takes the role of the worst looking film to open this weekend. Kevin James plays Scott Voss, a biology teacher who takes on underground MMA fights to help out the cash strapped school he works for. Kevin James has proved he does have box office muscles, but MMA still frightens a good portion of the public. Plus the film’s humor seems corny and how believable is James going to be in the octagon. Expect about $9 million from Here Comes the Boom.
One thing you can expect in October is a plethora of horror films looking to cash in on the Halloween season. Sinister stars Ethan Hawke as Ellison Oswalt, a true crime novelist who attempts to unravel a horrific murder of an entire family. Ellison uncovers footage that may unlock the mystery, but could there be supernatural forces at work? Sinister may be the hardest film to figure out this weekend. Reviews have been good so far for the film but the trailers have a hard time conveying the plot. Plus the R rating will keep the teenagers out that frequent the cineplex on the weekends. But it is Halloween and people are looking for a good scare. I think Sinister will perform well this weekend making $21 million, but the film will have to settle for second place.
Mr. Neeson and his revenge flick Taken 2 will take out the competition again at the box office. The film will surely have a huge drop in its second weekend. But considering the film made $49 million dollars, the fall will only be so far. Plus the film could get a boost from younger patrons buying tickets to the PG 13 rated Taken 2, just to sneak into Sinister. I expect Taken 2 to hold on to the top spot making $25 million dollars in the film’s second weekend.
1. Taken 2 – $25 million
2. Sinister – $21 million
3. Hotel Transylvania – $16 Million
4. Argo – $14 million
My picks seemed to get back on track this weekend. I did pick Taken 2 to win out at the box office for second straight week. I was off on the dollar amount by a few but close enough. A pleasant surprise was the well reviewed Argo jumping Sinister to take second place with $20 million. Word of mouth will help the film’s awards chances as well as its box office over the next few weeks.
1. Taken 2 – $25 million
2. Argo– $20 million
3. Sinister– $18 Million
4. Hotel Transylvania – $17 million